Where oh where has this cold weather been? Well the pattern has been far different from what most long range atmospheric prognosticators suggested (including us).
This is because certain pressure and temperature patterns around the globe have locked in a little (okay, or a lot) off from our thinking.
We are getting our cold break for the next week, but models are catching onto the same old pattern returning late month. A positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation, Atmospheric Angular Momentum and Arctic Oscillation are to blame.
What does that mean?
It’s all about where high pressure blocking patterns setup relative to cold air sources in a three-dimensional plane. Ridges of high pressure move counter-clockwise and can push cold air down.
The way the ridges and troughs are oriented now just does not favor much sustained cold into the central and eastern US for late January and at least the beginning of February. We don’t see this changing a ton after that.
There will still be cold shots and the pattern will still be active, so it’s thoroughly possible to see snowstorms.
Below is a video we made earlier in January that touched on some of the long range thinking at that point. We were pretty confident in getting this current cold shot and it lasting a bit, but unsure for how long. Now are a little more sure.
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