Welcome to a post about our favorite super long range prognosticators- that aren’t furry mammals in February.
The Farmers Almanac has plowed their way into the spotlight with their winter forecast. They are predicting a very cold one across most of the United States.
“this winter will be filled with so many ups and downs on the thermometer, it may remind you of a ‘Polar Coaster,'” its website says.
Nowhere in the country does this prediction have any average or above average temperature areas. 95% of the time when one area of the nation is super cold another part is the opposite or close to it.
Weather works like a teeter-totter due to trough and ridge placement. When there is troughing on one side of the nation the other end can get some nice warm air with high pressure in control. It’s all relative.
Our friends at Snow Plow News make some great points about the specific nature of the Almanac’s winter guesses. They don’t typically use much meteorology and science in their winter outlook, which they make several months earlier.
Here’s how the Almanac says they make weather predictions.
It’s About The Clicks
Cold and snowy forecasts tend to get bigger numbers. They are great for social media. They are great for marketing! That certainly doesn’t mean their winter preview is going to end up fully wrong.
This winter very well could feature some big ups and downs and have an area of very cold doses of Canadian air. BUT it’s probably not going to be cold coast-to-coast
Do you think hype words like “Polar Coaster” hurt your trust with the forecast?
Our Forecast Is Coming
Long range forecasting is an art and a science. Even the best in the biz are not going to be right 100% of the time. Our preliminary forecast is going to be released soon.
Until then we’ll chat about some of the differences between how meteorologists build long range outlooks and the Almanac. Some of the key patterns just aren’t known yet making it very hard to get specific.
P.S. enjoy the end of summer and fall. 🙂