Severe weather will continue to threaten the south-central plain states Tuesday and shift toward the southeast Wednesday. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats Tuesday afternoon, where the severe weather is most expected. The highest risk of tornado will be contained to southern Mississippi and southern Alabama Tuesday.
Tuesday: South-Central Plains; North-central/Northeast Gulf Coast
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has outlined the areas in the photo at left where the greatest risks of severe weather will likely occur this afternoon and into late this evening. The focus for the afternoon will be on the south-central plains states; the focus for later this evening will be in the slight risk area near the Gulf Coast. Hail will be the largest concern for the south-central plains states resultant of the severe weather in that area.
The most dangerous of the storms will be in the aforementioned region, and conditions still look favorable for hail, wind damage, and isolated tornado in Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, and Alabama. The photo at right shows the hail potential, and corresponds to the areas with greatest risk of severe weather. A deepening low pressure system, with ample moisture feed, will move into the Oklahoma area this afternoon and evening. Conditions are favorable for the remainder of this afternoon and early evening in the enhanced risk zone (and other zones) as the deepening low moves through the area.
Please stay up-to-date on all severe weather alerts, and stay in touch with local news agencies and weather service offices for the latest information with regard to the development of these storms. Remember to remain indoors if possible during all severe weather events, and to stay away from glass windows – especially with wind damage and isolated tornado potential.
As this system shifts east, it will create and even greater, wider risk of severe weather Wednesday.
Wednesday: Southeast and East Coast
Wednesday will once again see a return of severe weather risk, and the risk will be more widespread than Tuesday. The National Weather Service SPC has lifted this potential to the risk of severe weather “outbreak” – including strong, long-lived tornadoes if conditions materialize as thought.
The image at left shows us the widespread thought to the severe weather thinking for Wednesday. This area has been expanded as the day has progressed. The same deepening low pressure system from Tuesday will move eastward overnight and into Wednesday morning. The greatest risk of long-lived tornadoes and supercell thunderstorms will be in the “MDT” zone, as outlined by the SPC to the left. The primary time period for the southeast will be Wednesday late-afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. The deepening low will begin Wednesday west and move eastward into the severe weather risk area by evening; it will become a highly “amplified” – meaning very strong – system. The topper for the severe weather ingredients Wednesday will be the introduction of a stream of moisture-rich air – commonly called a Low-Level Jet – from the Gulf of Mexico into Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama.
The system will travel up the Atlantic seaboard and into Tennessee and the Carolinas by Thursday. The area of severe risk is larger due to the pick-up in speed of movement of the system, especially with the Low-Level Jet becoming a dominant factor in conducing a severe weather outbreak potential. Widespread wind damage, hail and its damages, and tornadoes will no doubt be big concerns.
Of the two days discussed here, Wednesday will certainly be the day of greater note. While both days are of concern, Wednesday presents a greater concern of an outbreak and long-lived supercells and tornadoes. As aforementioned, please stay tuned to all weather alerts for Wednesday to make sure you are 100-percent prepared for how the weather will impact you.
Beyond Wednesday: Tranquility
We can close this article with a sign of relief for tranquility, though. Once this powerful system moves eastward enough, the severe weather risk will be erased for much of the country by Thursday. North Carolina coast and Virginian Coast will remain in enhanced risk by day 3, but everyone else will be more quiet and cooler. Temperatures will see a dramatic drop for many regions from the Great Lakes to the southeast.
Here are some additional links you may be interested in for tracking the threatening severe weather ahead:
- National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
- SPC Outlook & discussion
- Current Watches in effect
- National Weather Service
- Storm reports
- Weather Alerts services
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