Severe weather will continue to impact parts of the Gulf Coast states through Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure system begins to track northeastward into Missouri on Wednesday and will be located just southwest of St. Louis, MO by Thursday evening. Severe thunderstorms will develop along a cold front that will advance through the region over the next couple of days.
The latest Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Convective Outlook:
An enhanced risk for severe weather is located across much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and eastern Texas. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms surrounds this from roughly the Gulf Coast to Dallas, TX, Tulsa, OK to just south of St. Louis, MO. It extends as far east as the Mississippi River. The enhanced risk area will be the focal point for severe weather.
A warm front will lift through the region during the day as highs reach the middle and upper 70s across the area. Combined with plentiful moisture from the Gulf, the atmosphere will be primed for severe weather with plenty of energy and moisture available for thunderstorm development. Storms will develop during the late afternoon hours and continue through the overnight Wednesday night. By early Thursday morning, the main batch of storms will have diminished. Below is a model loop of one of our high resolution models. It also shows a few storms developing Thursday morning across central Arkansas before quickly dissipating. However, storms then redevelop along their outflow boundary during the afternoon:
The severe weather threat will move eastward on Thursday with severe weather expected across much of the middle Mississippi River valley and into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
All severe weather threats will be in play on Wednesday. Damaging winds will certainly be the greatest threat, especially overnight as the storms become more linear and organize into a line. Tornadoes will also be possible from late Wednesday afternoon through about midnight, however, there will be a threat for tornadoes throughout the overnight hours. That threat will gradually diminish after midnight. Supercell storms will likely be the dominant storm type early on before becoming more organized into a line Wednesday night. Large hail will also be possible with these storms and some hail storms could get quite large given the amount of available moisture. It’s possible a couple of tornadoes could become intense, however we will have a better idea of the overall tornado threat Wednesday morning. Our latest NeoRisk details the aforementioned risks:
Localized flooding is also possible as many storms will be capable of producing 1-2″ of rainfall. Locally higher amounts are possible. Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND — DON’T DROWN! NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! Find an alternate route.
If you live within this region, it is best to get prepared today and tonight for the impending severe weather on Wednesday. Gather any necessary supplies, such as flashlights, blankets, a first aid kit, and any medication into one or more bags or containers and keep them in your tornado safe spot. Go over your family’s safety plans ahead of time in case a warning is issued for your area. Make sure all family members know where to go to take shelter if a tornado warning is issued. Also, keep in mind that the storms will be moving through during the evening and overnight hours. You will have little time to quickly grab the things you need and may forget important items altogether. Take a few minutes to prepare for the severe weather later today and tonight before the severe weather strikes your area.
It’s also a good idea to charge your cell phones by Wednesday afternoon!
A Small List of Important Supplies:
- First Aid Kit
- Bottled Water
- Snacks (such as granola bars)
- Items for pets
This is just a small list. Make sure you also bring any other necessary supplies to your safe spot before the weather strikes.
Lastly, be sure to keep up to date on the latest weather conditions. Monitor local radio and TV outlets for weather updates and listen to NOAA Weather Radio for any severe weather information. Smartphone apps are also good to help stay informed during severe weather.
Don’t count on hearing tornado sirens in the middle of the night! Remember, sirens are meant to warn those outdoors of severe weather. It is possible that the siren may not wake you up if you are sleeping!
Once the severe weather passes, much cooler weather will work into the region by Friday but warmer weather will quickly return for the weekend.